The Iowa pollster who made a wildly inaccurate prediction that Kamala Harris would win in the deep-red state now claims her mistake may have actually helped Donald Trump.
J. Ann Selzer – previously renowned for her predictions in The Hawkeye State – admitted her research was completely wrong and might have even emboldened MAGA nation.
‘I told more than one news outlet that the findings from this last poll could actually energize and activate Republican voters who thought they would likely coast to victory,’ she wrote Thursday. ‘Maybe that’s what happened.’
Selzer added she was ‘thinking about how we got where we are.’
The bombshell admission comes as election returns continue to show good news for Trump, as Arizona and Nevada are expected to put him over 300 electoral votes with Republicans favored to keep hold of the House of Representatives.
J. Ann Selzer, the previously respected Iowa pollster who completely flopped on her prediction that Kamala Harris would win the deep red state, admits she may have helped Donald Trump win
Selzer, a famed pollster known for her accurate predictions in Iowa, admitted her research was completely wrong on Iowa. Furthermore, she believes posting a survey that had Harris leading Trump by three in a state Democrats hadn’t won since 2008 may have stirred MAGA nation
Selzer’s survey had Harris leading Trump by three in a state Democrats hadn’t won since former President Obama’s first victory in 2008.
‘My philosophy in public opinion research is to take my best shot at revealing the truth of a future event, in this case Election Day,’ she wrote.
‘Without fear or favor, we used the same method as the final poll this year to show a healthy Trump lead in both 2020 and 2016. Those turned out to capture the mood of the electorate reasonably well, though both took fire from Iowans who doubted the findings could be true.’
She continued an attempt to defend her methodology, which came as a complete shock to voters the weekend prior to the election.
‘The poll findings we produced for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom did not match what the Iowa electorate ultimately decided in the voting booth today,’ she said.
‘I’ll be reviewing data from multiple sources with hopes of learning why that happened, and I welcome what that process might teach me.’
Selzer’s poll for the Register and Mediacom days before the election predicted Harris would win by +3 percentage points. But Donald Trump went on to trounce the vice president by over +13 points in the Hawkeye State.
Selzer’s poll in the days before the election were an uncharacteristic mistake for the longtime pollster, and it gave many liberals false hope that Harris was performing better than expected.
They credited it to fury among Iowa women both liberal and conservative over the state’s abortion crackdown.
Selzer, who had accurately predicted Iowa’s election results since 2008, forecast that Kamala Harris would win Iowa by +3 points. She went on to lose the state by over +13 points
Trump easily won the state of Iowa as he cruised to victory in the presidential race on Tuesday night, also winning every one of the seven swing states and the national popular vote
Iowa has become a Republican-leaning state, with Trump winning the state by +9 percent over Joe Biden in 2020 and +10 percent over Hillary Clinton in 2016.
However, the state has not always been reliably red, and swung for Barack Obama in both the 2008 and 2012 elections by +9 percent and +6 percent, respectively.
Selzer – who was mercilessly mocked after Iowa went to Trump – had accurately predicted each of these outcomes going back to 2008, giving her a Nostradamus-like reputation that drew eyeballs to her incorrect Harris poll last week.
The humiliation also led Register executive editor Carol Hunter to issue a statement to readers explaining why they published the poll.
‘The Des Moines Register is closely reviewing the disparity between the results of the final Iowa Poll and the election results,’ Hunter said in a statement.
‘Throughout its 81 years, the mission of the Iowa Poll has been to reflect the unvarnished opinions of Iowans, without pressure or interpretation from politicians, media or others.
‘With rare exceptions, the final Iowa Poll before elections has tracked closely with the actual vote.
‘Register editors will work closely with pollster J. Ann Selzer to review all methodologies and other factors that may have impacted the difference.
Donald Trump easily won Iowa in Tuesday’s presidential election – just as he did in 2016 and 2020
Sen. Marco Rubio tore into the Des Moines Register poll that came out days before the presidential election and showed Trump losing to Vice President Kamala Harris
‘The Iowa Poll has measured opinions of Iowans on everything from farm policy to traffic cameras to the quality of mental health services in the state. We want to ensure it accurately reflects the sentiments of Iowans moving forward.’
Trump spent his Thursday beginning to put together a team for his second term, with campaign co-chair Susie Wiles named White House Chief of Staff.
Two Senate races remain uncalled, with Democrats hanging on to leads in Arizona and Nevada, which would leave the Republicans at a 52-48 seat majority, a gain of three seats.
Democrat Ruben Gallego leads Trump ally Kari Lake in Arizona by two points, with 76% of the vote in to take Kyrsten Sinema’s seat.
In Nevada, incumbent Jacky Rosen leads Republican Sam Brown by a little over a point with 91% of the votes in, with Nevada polling expert Jon Ralston declaring it ‘game over’ for Brown.
House of Representatives results continue to move slowly, with Republicans at 211 seats, seven shy of retaining their majority.
The Democrats have won 195 seats and lead in 14 of the uncalled races, which would top them out at 209, a loss of four seats from their minority position in 2022.
Lakshya Jain, a polls analyst for Split Ticket, gave Democrats a no more than 15% chance of late voting tallies providing them with the comebacks necessary to win a shock majority.
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