A slew of polls showing Donald Trump gaining ground or extending his lead over Kamala Harris has had a dramatic impact on his overall chances of winning November’s presidential election.
The former president has shot out to his biggest lead yet in our DailyMail.com/J.L. Partners election model.
It shows that he now wins in 65.9 percent of simulations when the algorithm runs through all possible combinations of data.
That is a big jump from Friday when the model was last run. Then he won in 61.4 percent of simulations.
With just two weeks to go until Election Day, it suggests time is running out for the vice president.
Instead momentum has shifted to Trump since the heady days of August when the newly installed Democratic candidate took a lead in the polls and raked in colossal amounts of cash after President Joe Biden‘s shock decision to stand aside.
The new calculation reflects three new national polls that all show Trump taking a lead over Harris, reducing her longstanding lead in nationwide averages.
Analysts believe Harris will need a decisive win in the national vote numbers to have any chance of prevailing in the swing states that will decide who racks up more Electoral College votes and wins the the White House.
As things stand, the model suggests the most likely outcome is for Trump to sweep the seven battlegrounds, taking the Electoral College by 312 to 226.
But the numbers come with a caveat. Harris is not out of the race.
With a 34 percent frequency of winning in the simulations the contest remains tight, and the model delivers a final verdict that the election ‘leans Trump,’ rather than anything more decisive.
The forecast comes from crunching all the latest polling data, along with election results from the past 80 years plus economic statistics.
Callum Hunter, data scientist at J.L. Partners, said the national polls moving to Trump had made the biggest difference since last week.
‘Less than one percent of all Democrat victories come about as a result of them losing the popular vote and so it is paramount for Harris to win the popular vote if she wants to win the Electoral College,’ he wrote in his briefing Monday.
Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are locked in a tight race, but the DailyMail.com/J.L. Partners election model suggests the former president has all the momentum with two weeks to go
‘The latest set of polls are beginning to weaken the assumption that Harris would win the popular vote.’
As that probability weakens, he added, Trump’s odds of an Electoral College victory improve.
‘There has also been a long term trend of the national polling gap between Harris and Trump closing. A month ago Harris led Trump by around 3.5 points in the national polls, currently she leads by around 1.5 points.
‘The electoral fog is lifting and it seems to be revealing a likely Trump win.
Trump was in Asheville, North Carolina, surveying storm damage on Monday
Harris was campaigning with Republican Liz Cheney, trying to win over disaffected conservatives in Pennsylvania tired of Trump
‘We’ve yet to see the impact of Trump’s McDonald’s visit this weekend. A visit that went off very well for Trump…’
Trump spent the weekend in the pivotal battleground state of Pennsylvania, serving fries to McDonald’s customers and attending a Pittsburgh Steelers game.
On Monday, he flew to Asheville, North Carolina, to see the Hurricane Helene-ravaged city for himself.
Harris was in Philadelphia on Monday with Republican Liz Cheney, making an appeal to disaffected conservative voters.
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