Takeaways from primaries that could swing balance of power in Congress

Voters in Maryland, West Virginia and Nebraska headed to the polls on Tuesday to cast ballots in a series of primaries which could have an impact on the balance of power on Congress come November. Maryland could elect its first Black woman to the Senate, Republican governors could have a role in flipping the chamber, challengers from the right did not do well and major self-funding failed on Tuesday. At the same time, the latest series of contests in the three states also shed light on challenges both President Joe Biden and Donald Trump could face this fall. Here are the takeaways from Tuesday’s primary contests: 

Trump’s Haley problem continues in closed primaries: Donald Trump’s campaign has dismissed thousands of voters choosing Nikki Haley in the Republican presidential primaries as Democrats tampering in the race. But even in closed primaries, some Republicans are not onboard with the presumptive GOP presidential nominee and going with the former Republican candidate who dropped out of the race more than two months ago. In Maryland, Trump won 80 percent in the GOP primary, or 190,000 votes. But Haley raked in 20 percent, more than 47,000, despite ending her bid. To vote in the state’s presidential primary, voters are required to be registered with either the Republican or Democratic parties, meaning those voting for Haley were registered Republicans. It comes as Trump has been struggling to consolidate support within his party as he looks ahead to taking on Biden in November despite running away with the Republican nomination earlier this year.

In deep-red West Virginia, Trump is expected to carry the state without competition come November, but Haley still received more than 21,000 votes in the state’s presidential primary, keeping Trump from reaching 90 percent of the Republican vote in the state. Trump won Nebraska’s popular vote in 2020, but Biden was able to pick up one delegate from its 2nd Congressional district. On Tuesday, Trump received 80 percent of the vote in the state’s Republican presidential primary, but Haley took nearly 18 percent or 36,000 votes. Only registered Republicans can vote in the closed primary. Haley’s support came largely from that congressional district around Omaha that voted for Biden in the last election, signaling if Trump does not do more to shore up GOP support, it could split for the president again come November.

Maryland gets its Senate matchup: The Maryland race to replace retiring Senator Ben Cardin has its matchup. Prince George’s County executive Angela Alsobrooks won the Democratic nomination by double-digits. She received 54 percent or 243,600 votes against Congressman David Trone who received 41 percent or 188,000 votes. Alsobrooks would be the first Black person elected to the Senate from Maryland and the only Black woman in the Senate if she wins in November. She had the backing of many of the state’s Democratic leaders including Governor Wes Moore, Senator Chris Van Hollen and Congressmen Steny Hoyer and Jamie Raskin.

Alsobrooks’ landslide victory raises questions about polling in the race. While she was ahead in the final Emerson College poll, several other polls showed Trone ahead leading up to the primary including by double-digits. Alsobrooks will face former Maryland Republican Governor Larry Hogan whose entrance into the race has made the blue state much more competitive as Republicans look to flip the Senate. Hogan is a Trump critic who ran the state from 2015 to 2023 but left office popular among Republicans and Democrats alike.

Self-funders were unsuccessful: Despite sinking around $60 million of his own money into his campaign, Congressman David Trone was unsuccessful in clinching the Maryland Democratic Senate nomination and actually lost by double-digits. It’s a warning sign that self-funding, which has been a trend among some Senate hopefuls does not assure victory. Trone’s campaign was the second most self-funded Senate campaign in U.S. history right behind Senator Rick Scott’s 2018 campaign which he won. Trone’s failed bid is also a reminder that there’s only so much ad spending can buy. He had $48 million in ad support according to tracking by Ad Impact. Alsobrooks had less than $7 million. Trone took his epic lose gracefully and called for Maryland voters to back the Democratic nominee.

Another self-funder on Tuesday who lost was Republican businessman Chris Miller. He loaned his campaign more than $5 million in his race for West Virginia Governor. He also spent the most on advertising. But he came in third place in the primary with just 20 percent. West Virginia is one step closer to a Republican Senate seat: Republican Governor Jim Justice won the West Virginia Republican Senate primary with more than 61 percent or 137,000 votes. His closest challenger Congressman Alex Mooney received 26.6 percent of the vote. Justice is one step closer to filling the seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Senator Joe Manchin, the last Democrat to hold statewide office in West Virginia. Republicans hope to flip the Senate and run directly through the state. Democrats currently hold a 51 seat majority, but Republicans picking up West Virginia is all but assured. Wheeling mayor Glenn Elliott won the Democratic Senate primary with 45 percent or just under 46,000 votes.

Incumbents fend off right challengers: Several congressional Republicans were able to fend off primary challenges from the right in Tuesday’s contests. Those running against them were seen as long-shots but the results showed just how wide their victories were. Congressman Don Bacon, who represents Nebraska’s second congressional district, was facing a challenge by conservative business executive Dan Frei in a district Biden won in 2020. Frei had the support of the state Republican party, but Bacon was able to win the primary with 62 percent of the vote. He is viewed as a stronger candidate to hold the seat against Democrat Tony Vargas in November. In West Virginia, Congresswoman Carol Miller was able to easily fend off a challenge from convicted felon Derrick Evans who participated in the January 6 attack on the Capitol. Evans was sentenced to three months in prison for his role in the riot.

Miller won her primary in the state’s first congressional district with 63 percent of the vote, but Evans received 37 percent in the primary. Biden protest vote isn’t playing as big a role: President Biden has been facing warning signs in a series of Democratic primaries as some voters choose ‘uncommitted’ over backing the incumbent president over his support for Israel as war rages in Gaza. But despite the ‘uncommitted’ campaign, Biden ran further ahead in the Democratic president primaries in Maryland and Nebraska on Tuesday than Trump did in the Republican primaries. Biden received more than 90 percent of support in the Nebraska primary among Democrats while Trump received 80 percent support among Republicans.

In Maryland, Biden received 86 percent in the Democratic primary while Trump received 80 percent in the GOP presidential contest. It comes after Biden also ran ahead of Trump in several battleground state primaries earlier this year. But Biden is still facing serious challenges from the left-wing of his party as recent polling has shown him losing support among some of the base including among young people who typically vote for Democrats in presidential elections.

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